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By JAKOB HANKE VELA and SUZANNE LYNCH

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GRIM MILESTONE: Saturday marks 100 days since Russia invaded Ukraine, killing thousands, displacing millions and triggering global energy and food crises. Here’s where things stand …

What has President Vladimir Putin achieved? Very little. He has failed to topple the democratic government in Kyiv led by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and he has strengthened both NATO and the EU. In the most tangible examples, Finland and Sweden are poised to join NATO, and Danes voted this week to opt in to EU defense policy.

Putin encountered a much mightier and determined defensive force than predicted, which pushed the Russians to withdraw from the Kyiv region and regroup in Ukraine’s east. Western estimates are that the Russian military’s fighting capacity has been reduced by about 20 percent.

Financial pain: Meanwhile, unprecedented EU sanctions, backed by G7 powers, are chipping away at Russia’s industrial base.

**A message from EUROFER: EU climate objectives should be achieved in the most cost-efficient way. Energy security, industrial competitiveness and the green transition need to go hand in hand. We need to avoid unnecessary costs for European industry and consumers at a time of skyrocketing energy prices while ensuring affordable access to renewable energy.**

The EU has proven wrong the age-old adage repeated by autocrats and think-tankers alike, according to which European democracies are weak and unwilling to suffer for their values.

On the contrary, despite record-high energy prices and inflation, EU countries this week took the historical step to ban most Russian oil imports, which will severely hit Putin’s income, proving European democracies can make sacrifices when needed. Indeed, it was the EU’s least democratic country — Hungary — which most strongly opposed these sanctions. 

WHERE THINGS ARE GOING: Putin may have miscalculated, but his army is making slow but steady progress in eastern Ukraine, where military experts fear a bloody war of attrition. The U.S. for the first time is sending advanced rocket systems to help Ukraine counter the Russian assault; Germany and other allies such as Slovakia have also announced new shipments. But they could take weeks to arrive.

No clear end: Europe is facing up to the fact that this could be a protracted, drawn-out conflict with no end in sight. Calls for a ceasefire — a proposal by some countries to include a mention of it in this week’s European Council summit conclusions was shot down — are likely to grow louder.

What to watch for today: There’s alarm about a looming food crisis, as tons of grain remain trapped in Ukraine. The head of the African Union Macky Sall will meet Putin in the Russian city of Sochi today with the aim of freeing up grain and fertilizers. U.N. Emergency Relief Coordinator Martin Griffiths is in Moscow today for similar talks, according to Reuters.

Now read this: POLITICO’s Opinion Editor Jamie Dettmer on why African states are reluctant to pick sides on Ukraine: “While the breach of global norms by Russia has indeed shocked many in Africa, they’re worried about their own immediate needs and interests” — from famine to wars and strife on their own continent.

Cost of war: “What they don’t seem to appreciate is that to our ears they seem to be saying European lives are more important than African lives,” an African envoy in Brussels told Jamie, adding: “Both [German Chancellor Olaf] Scholz and [Italy’s PM Mario] Draghi are coming to us to seek ways to diversify where they get their energy from — well, we need help with food.”

KLAUS WELLE QUITS: Klaus Welle, the powerful head of the European Parliament’s administration, will leave his job by year’s end, five officials told POLITICO’s Florian Eder and Maïa de La Baume. Welle, who has served as the Parliament’s secretary-general since 2009, announced his departure in a letter sent this week to senior Parliament members.

Weber reaction: “We are very sad that Klaus Welle has taken the personal decision to leave at the end of the year,” Manfred Weber, president of Welle’s European People’s Party (EPP) and chair of its Parliament group, told POLITICO, confirming the news. 

Pen portrait: Welle, 58, spent his 13 years in office enhancing the secretary-general’s role, and using his clout to expand the Parliament’s authority in the ever-evolving power struggle between the EUs political institutions.

Rare alignment: The EU now has two open secretary-general posts: at the Parliament and the Council.

Political machinations: Welle’s post was being eyed off by senior MEPs late last year, as they hashed out new compromises for the half-term, which saw an EPP candidate — Roberta Metsola — take over the Parliament presidency from the S&D. Clearly not amused by having his name thrown into the mix, Welle stayed put, quitting on his own terms.

REALPOLITIK LESSON WITH ARANCHA GONZÁLEZ LAYA: She is one of Spain’s most renowned and internationally respected civil servants, who climbed to the top of the ladder as an expert in the European Commission and international institutions, rather than as a political soldier within a party. But the former Spanish foreign minister last year had to resign over a major diplomatic crisis with Morocco, before becoming the dean of the Paris International Relations School of Sciences Po. 

Power politics vs. rule of law: While she does not want to criticize the government she worked for, González Laya is clear when asked about PM Pedro Sánchez’s historic and much-criticized decision to recognize Morocco’s illegal annexation of Western Sahara (a Spanish colony until 1975) — a decision that infuriated Algeria, one of the EU’s biggest gas suppliers. 

By the book: “What I will say is … I think it’s important to abide by international law, because that’s the best antidote against power-based politics,” González Laya told Playbook. Asked if this includes the U.N. decision according to which Western Sahara has the right to be independent of Morocco, she said: “The U.N. is the embodiment of international law, and a rules-based international order.”

Repercussions for the EU: Spain’s about-turn on Morocco caused Algeria to cut its natural gas shipments to Spain last month, arguably at the worst possible moment for the EU, which was already struggling with record-high energy prices. “I think we have to go back to fundamentals,” González Laya said. “Spain — and Europe — need a good relationship with the entire Mediterranean neighborhood, not just Morocco, but also Algeria, Libya, Egypt.”

Meritocrat in Downton Abbey: Like France’s new foreign minister, whose diplomats are striking against a reform of the foreign ministry, González Laya encountered strong opposition as she tried to reform Spain’s archaic diplomatic service, which is still seen as a job-provider for the country’s noblemen. “The ministry needed to be modernized, not against its will, but together with its staff,” she said. “I moved the needle from 12 percent of ambassadors being women to 21 percent — so in the space of a year and a half, we had given a signal.”

Glass ceiling: Alas, “I could not take forward a number of the recommendations” made by an expert commission, which included reforming the selection process, González Laya admitted. Indeed, the core of the reform was scrapped after she stepped down, and has not been taken forward by the new foreign minister, José Manuel Albares.

No conspiracy: However, González Laya denied her departure was propelled by these attempted reforms, arguing that the idea of a cabal of noblemen scheming to get rid of her was the stuff of “legends.”

Burn after reading: González Laya found herself at the center of a storm after Rabat discovered Madrid had flown the leader of the Western Saharan independence movement, Brahim Ghali, to be treated in a Spanish hospital for COVID. Madrid announced last month that González Laya’s phone had been tapped during that episode.

Hacked off: “The thing that worries me the most is that everything was done to [discredit] and throw mud at a humanitarian decision taken by the government … to help a citizen who happens to be a Spanish citizen,” González Laya said. Asked if that meant she didn’t take the decision to fly in Ghali alone, she said: “Humanitarian decisions are governmental decisions, not personal decisions. Obviously, I was heading foreign policy. But what I did was the expression of a government policy.”

Does she consider herself a sacrificial lamb for Morocco? “No,” González Laya said. “Look, you don’t question these decisions … you serve at the mercy and at the pleasure of your prime minister … So, when you enter political life, you’ve got to be extremely clear.”

LEGACY: González Laya brightened up when she spoke about her negotiations with France, Germany and Italy on the historical NextGenEU budget — with massive joint EU borrowing for the first time in the bloc’s history.

Paper giants: González Laya pointed out that it was Madrid which kickstarted the debate on joint EU borrowing, with a well-timed non-paper that channeled the anti-austerity momentum, while avoiding pitfalls such as mentioning the toxic (for Germanic ears) word “eurobonds.”

The document was “the beginning of the Next Generation EU. It started there, with this non-paper. We were very modest, didn’t know if it was going to float … But the essence of it was then taken in the Franco-German proposal, which was then reflected in the proposal that [European Commission President] Ursula von der Leyen put on the table.”

How to do it: González Laya said the paper was a joint effort by the PM’s office, Economy Minister Nadia Calviño and herself. The trick was seeing that “we had an opportunity to build a more solid Europe. But doing this while also navigating the very extreme views that were represented by Italy on the one hand, and Germany, on the other hand.”

Are we back to where we started, considering Germany’s “no” to a second round of EU borrowing? “I’ve learned in this business that you don’t say categorical noes or yeses, because you may just come to regret having said that. I don’t think that the German finance minister was foreseeing that there would be a war in Ukraine, and that war in Ukraine would have the impact that it’s having on spending.” 

Danone and Russia: On top of her university job, González Laya is also advising French dairy giant Danone, which still hasn’t pulled out of Russia. What’s her view on that? “Danone has frozen every new investment in Russia,” González Laya said, arguing that “what it has kept is first line of support with basic food, basically out of our humanitarian responsibility with everyday citizens of Russia … they do baby food, for example.”

So no Activia and strawberry yoghurt for middle-class Russians? “They do what’s essential in their humanitarian responsibility with the citizens,” González Laya insisted.

HUNGARY KICKS ITSELF INTO ISOLATION: Prime Minister Viktor Orbán won again, forcing furious EU ambassadors to remove Patriarch Kirill of Moscow (Putin’s symbiotic religious leader-cum-propagandist who has blessed his war against Ukraine) from the EU’s sixth sanctions package.

But the victory comes at a high price, as Hungary’s hostage politics have isolated the country in the Council, our colleagues Leonie Kijewski and Jacopo Barigazzi report. “Many member states are disappointed with Hungary,” an EU diplomat said. “Hungary has lost the last sympathies of its former friends in Central and Eastern Europe with this unnecessary stunt.”

Look in the mirror to find someone to blame: Alas, many of the now-furious EU politicians have themselves to blame, as it was EPP leaders such as former German Chancellor Angela Merkel and EPP President Manfred Weber who for years aided and abetted Orbán as he grew stronger.

Now hear this: The POLITICO team discusses the Russian oil sanctions and the EUCO summit with author Tommaso Pavone in this week’s EU Confidential podcast.

VDL ON THE DEFENSIVE: Ursula von der Leyen defended her plan to unlock EU recovery funding for Poland in Warsaw on Thursday. More from POLITICO’s Lili Bayer.

SEE EU IN COURT: Former Chelsea owner Roman Abramovich is one of more than 20 individuals connected to the Kremlin who are suing the Council of the EU after being sanctioned, POLITICO’s Leonie Kijewski reports.

PARLIAMENT BARS RUSSIA LOBBYISTS: Last week, Playbook reported about the Green group’s letter to President Roberta Metsola, asking her to prevent Russia-backed lobbyists from entering Parliament buildings. Metsola has now announced Russian company representatives may not enter the institution’s buildings “effective immediately,” as our colleague Sarah Wheaton reports.

TALKING TÜRKIYE: The U.N. has agreed to change Turkey’s official name at the organization to Türkiye, the way it is written and pronounced in Turkish, following a request from Ankara. More here.

CHELSEA MANNING’S PRIVACY TECH: U.S. whistleblower Chelsea Manning has teamed up with a group of software developers to develop a computer platform called Nym Technologies that’s designed to stop governments and corporations from online surveillance. POLITICO’s Bjarke Smith-Meyer interviewed Manning about the project.

BIDEN SPEECH: U.S. President Joe Biden overnight called for a ban on assault weapons, or if that’s not possible, for increasing the age at which Americans can buy them. POLITICO has the details.

WEEKEND LISTENING — THE TROUBLES: Ailbhe Rea, the new host of POLITICO’s Westminster Insider podcast, takes listeners on her year-long journey covering the British government’s contentious efforts to find peace and reconciliation within Northern Ireland’s war-torn past. Worth your time.

WEEKEND READING: Oil workers in Aberdeen have every reason to loathe green groups. Instead, on the precipice of the end of oil, they are building a tentative alliance, reports POLITICO’s Karl Mathiesen in this despatch from the port city in northeast Scotland.

TGIF: “The great Mona Lisa cake mystery” — check out Paul Dallison’s latest Declassified column.

**Know first and save time with POLITICO Pro. Get prime and customized access to exclusive reliable scoops on the policy developments in Europe that matter to you. Learn more here.**

— Foreign Affairs Council (Trade), Luxembourg, 9:30 a.m. 

— Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council (Telecommunications) Luxembourg, 9:30 a.m. 

— European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen meets with French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris at 1:30 p.m.

— European Council President Charles Michel attends meeting of the Bilderberg group in Washington D.C.

— Commission Vice President Margaritis Schinas in Washington D.C., meets Homeland Security chief Alejandro Mayorkas and attends meeting of the Bilderberg group.

— Commissioners’ agendas: Frans Timmermans in Wroclaw, Poland … Ylva Johansson receives Alexander Fritsch, chairman Frontex board … Mariya Gabriel in Sofia, Bulgaria … Paolo Gentiloni participates in the Festival Economia di Torino, in Turin … Nicolas Schmit in Venice, Italy; participates at the Geneva Association General Assembly 2022.

— Annual Conference of the European Semester Group organized by the European Economic and Social Committee. Commissioner Elisa Ferreira delivers address.

— ALDE Congress in Dublin. Commissioners Janez Lenarčič, Margrethe Vestager and Kadri Simson to attend. Program. Watch.

— Plenary session of the 35th European Green Party Council. Commissioner Virginijus Sinkevičius participates.

— Eurogroup chief Paschal Donohoe continues visit to Washington.

— GLOBSEC 22 Bratislava Forum continues. Full details here.

— Mayor of Irpin Oleksandr Markushyn holds press conference at opening of the Irpin.Invincible exhibition, 6:30 p.m.

EXHIBITION: The “Irpin.Invincible” exhibition opens in Brussels this evening in the Ukrainian Сivil Society Hub at the European Parliament’s Station Europe building, Place du Luxembourg. The exhibition, which is also on tomorrow, reveals what life was like in the Ukrainian city while it was under Russian occupation.

BIRTHDAYS: MEP Mara Bizzotto; German jurist Sabine Lautenschläger, formerly a member of the ECB’s Executive Board; Katharina Erdmenger of the German perm rep to the EU; Deborah Civico of Fédération Internationale de l’Automobile; Societe Generale-Forge’s Stéphane Blemus; U.S. First Lady Jill Biden; Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani; Former President of Cuba Raúl Castro.

Celebrating Saturday: MEPs Aušra Maldeikienė, Georgios Kyrtsos and Henna Virkkunen; European Parliament’s Samuel Baylet; José Borghino of the International Publishers Association; Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny turns 46; U.N. special envoy on refugee issues Angelina Jolie.

Celebrating Sunday: MEPs Luisa Regimenti, Anna Deparnay-Grunenberg and Christine Schneider; British politician and former MEP Claire Fox; Former MEP Maurice Ponga;  Lund University’s Rickard Eksten. Denmark’s Constitution Day.

THANKS TO: Barbara Moens, Florian Eder and producer Grace Stranger.

**A message from EUROFER: The ETS revision and CBAM proposals are key pillars of the EU climate and energy architecture. In times of high inflation and economic volatility, they need to be designed in a way that enables the green transition while ensuring the competitiveness of European industry and affordable energy for consumers. The one-off cancellation (rebasing) and strengthening of the Market Stability Reserve would cause unnecessary additional costs for EU society and should be avoided. Read why in the EU steel industry’s CEOs letter. Industry and consumers need to be put at the centre of the new EU energy system. That is why we need short-term relief measures for companies affected by high energy prices, the swift development of hydrogen infrastructure and priority access to hydrogen supplies. Without industry users on board, there will be no green transition. Read more in the EU steel industry’s Energy Manifesto.**

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